Scenario: Highways

“Unreasonable haste is the direct road to error” — Molière

Highways is a scenario in which the energy transition lurches from a slow start to a sudden acceleration, driven by a short-term, top-down approach with unintended economic consequences.

2025-2030: Speeding up

• Pennsylvania increases fossil fuel reliance, expanding shale gas production and natural gas power plants in response to economic and energy demands, including the growth of high-tech industries.
• The state’s energy infrastructure faces a dilemma: whether to focus on gas or renewables, with hydrogen/CCUS technologies stalling and growing power needs pushing for fossil fuel investments.

2030-2035: Slowing down and falling behind

• Economic boom slows, leading to political resistance to renewable energy, while neighboring states progress in energy transition, leaving Pennsylvania reliant on gas.
• Environmental awareness grows, but the state struggles to move away from fossil fuels, and indecisive policies hinder the transition, as climate change impacts intensify.

2035-2040: Offramp towards a new direction

• New leadership prioritizes rapid decarbonization and renewable energy, but faces high in-state energy costs, slow renewable buildout, and grid reliability problems.
• Top-down reforms, including electrification mandates and energy targets, lead to mixed results, with some successes but also failures, community resistance, and growing inequality.

2040-2050: Crisis and course correction

• Rural and exurban communities resist renewable energy projects and EV mandates, while permitting issues and community opposition stifle new energy projects.
• A political backlash emerges after power outages, leading to a commission that critiques the rapid, top-down approach and advocates for more long-term, flexible planning.